Quick Take
- Tomorrow is the next FOMC meeting, in which the markets have priced in a 25bps rate hike which would get the fed funds rate to 5.00 – 5.25.
- The market is pricing in a 94% probability of a 25 bps rate hike, all but confirmed.
- However, the FOMC meeting has been historically negative for Bitcoin price action.
- The price remained stagnant twice in the past nine FOMC meetings and dropped in the other seven.
- The last four FOMC meetings have seen negative price drops.
- Bitcoin is down 5% in the past five days, so has the price action led to the FOMC meeting?
- But ultimately, 2022 was the year of rate hikes, for the first time meaningfully since the 2008 cycle — which is why these events had such a negative influence.
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