Quick Take
According to crypto prediction platform Polymarket, users are betting on a 55% chance that President Biden will withdraw from the presidential race. This significant increase in odds is notable considering that before the first presidential debate on June 27, the market priced in just a 19% chance of Biden dropping out. The day after the debate, this probability surged to 42% and peaked at 63% by July 3 before slightly decreasing to 55%.
Polymarket’s odds also indicate a tightening race between President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden’s chances of winning the election are now at 15%, while Harris’s odds have jumped to 14%, reflecting growing uncertainty and speculation about the potential shifts in the Democratic candidacy.
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