As we approach the end of 2024, the emerging tech landscape bears little resemblance to that of 2019. In just five years, the whirlwind of innovation that swept through decentralized finance, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technologies has transformed our digital world at a dizzying pace. Yet, amid this rapid progress, I see a curious phenomenon emerging: innovation fatigue.
Due to the breathtaking advancements in tech over the past five years, from DeFi summer to ChatGPT, the world is entirely different in 2024 from the world we knew pre-COVID.
Once ablaze with enthusiasm, the crypto market now struggles to maintain momentum. Bitcoin, after briefly surpassing $70,000 earlier this year, has retreated to around $55,000. In parallel, NVIDIA, the poster child of the AI boom, has seen its stock price decline sharply. While global economic uncertainties and inflation concerns offer partial explanations, they fail to capture the complete picture.
I’m not convinced this growth stagnation is simply a commentary on economic global uncertainty due to high inflation. Inflation is coming down almost everywhere and is expected to continue to decline. Additionally, the Fed is about to cut interest rates this month. As a result, analysts are bullish on US GDP growth for 2025-2028, expecting the economy to rebound strongly as rate cuts take effect. This optimism is based on expectations of recovering labor force participation and solid productivity growth.
So, is high inflation really a good enough answer, or is it just an issue being parroted because it’s easier than looking beyond key talking points?
Perhaps the world is becoming oversaturated by ‘game-changing,’ ‘revolutionary,’ and ‘next-generation’ technology to the point where people just don’t care anymore.
Crypto is boring in 2024, except for Bitcoin
The crypto industry, in particular, is grappling with a paradox. Despite technological advancements, public engagement seems to be waning. The constant barrage of “revolutionary” Layer-1 blockchains, “game-changing” Layer-2 solutions, and “next-generation” AI models has created a cacophony of innovation that’s increasingly difficult for the average person to parse.
Personally, I find it almost impossible to get excited about the 1,000th new DeFi project or layer-2 press release that hits my inbox each day, trying desperately to convince me the project is revolutionary. Even when the tech is extremely cool, I ask myself, “Can this achieve the network effect necessary for it to be relevant?”
Most of the excitement in 2024 has been focused on spot ETFs in the US with the hope that the price will eventually follow what gold did 20 years ago. However, that’s precisely how long it took gold to take off after the first gold ETF was launched in the US. I’ve analyzed this in the past, and while I don’t think it will take Bitcoin as long to eclipse gold’s performance, it’s now clear that it’s not happening this cycle.
Outside of ETFs, I believe Bitcoin is still the most exciting aspect of the broader crypto industry in 2024. DeFi finally coming to Bitcoin, explorations of how it can be used to secure proof-of-stake chains, alternative assets like Ordinals, Runes, TAP, and BRC-20, and growing interest in how Bitcoin can be used as a replacement for kinetic warfare are some of the most underrated advancements of the year.
Bitcoin is a globally distributed timestamping and event-sequencing network that will genuinely change the world in ways few realize. Instead, the market appears to be more interested in memecoins on Solana and Base for some reason.
Perhaps the innovation on Bitcoin isn’t sexy enough right now, or it’s that there are no ‘massive gains’ to be made in a short space of time. Either way, the industry must be stagnating from boredom when pump and dump memecoins are what’s driving interest.
Moreover, the spectacular failures within the crypto space, such as the collapse of Terra Luna and FTX, have eroded trust and enthusiasm. These setbacks, coupled with high-profile security breaches like the Wormhole hack, have made many wary of embracing the next big thing in blockchain technology.
AI is like a cheat code making the game of life less interesting
This sentiment extends beyond crypto. As reported by McKinsey, while generative AI saw a staggering 700% increase in Google searches from 2022 to 2023, overall technology equity investments fell by 30-40% to approximately $570 billion last year. This dichotomy suggests that while interest in cutting-edge tech remains high, there’s growing hesitation to commit resources amid the relentless pace of change.
The psychological impact of this innovation overload is profound. Sentiment analysis since 2019 reveals a growing ambivalence towards technological breakthroughs. The once-exciting promise of each new development is increasingly met with a shrug as if to say, “What’s next?”
This apathy may stem from a sense that current AI models are already so advanced that further improvements seem incremental rather than revolutionary. Are we now looking to the future and saying to ourselves, “AI will be able to do all of that soon, so I don’t really care about anything until models reach AGI and can act as my digital servants to do whatever I ask of them 24/7”? The public imagination may be leaping ahead to the possibility of AGI, making intermediate advancements feel less significant by comparison.
The UK government’s 2024 survey on public attitudes towards AI offers further insight. While there is recognition of AI’s potential benefits, there is also widespread concern about job displacement and the erosion of human skills. This anxiety about the future may contribute to a reluctance to engage fully with emerging technologies.
What happens next? A boring life?
As we navigate this period of innovation fatigue, it’s important to recognize that progress often occurs in cycles. Periods of rapid advancement are typically followed by consolidation and reflection. Rather than viewing this as a negative trend, it may represent a necessary pause – a chance for society to catch up with the technological leaps of recent years.
This moment presents an opportunity for the emerging tech industry to refocus on practical applications and tangible benefits rather than chasing the next headline-grabbing breakthrough. It’s a time to build trust, address ethical concerns, and demonstrate how these innovations can meaningfully improve lives.
The challenge now is not just to innovate but to innovate responsibly, with a keen eye on societal impact and long-term sustainability. Only by doing so can we reignite the public’s imagination and enthusiasm for technology’s transformative potential.
The next Bitcoin all-time high, therefore, may not be reliant on short-term holders, nation-state adoption, banks holding Bitcoin or regulatory change but, in fact, in allowing the world to finally settle into this ‘new normal’ post-2020, where AI and blockchain are already changing so much of what we once knew.
For instance, when extrapolating to what is possible even with the current AI models, it feels like we’re playing a computer game with cheats turned on—something that is fun for a while but eventually gets boring due to the lack of challenge and future progress.
We need to accept this isn’t ‘cheat mode’. This is the world in which we now reside.
We have to accept it and embrace it so we can once again get excited about new things. However, there’s also the risk that continued improvements in AI will mean we never again get a chance to stand still and reflect, and we just have to deal with feeling ill at ease with how things are.
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