Polymarket Bets on Trump: Will Crypto Markets React to a Potential GOP Victory?

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The US presidential election is just a week away. The odds now suggest that Republican candidate Donald Trump could secure a clear victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Most forecasts, including the Polymarket election prediction, indicate that the US electorate currently leans more toward Trump than Kamala. It is unclear how a Trump victory might influence various markets. Crypto traders, especially Ethereum traders, wonder if the forecasted political change could mark a shift in the crypto sector. Let’s try to understand the scenario better. Dive in! 

Trump’s Rising Election Odds 

Most forecasting platforms, like Polymarket, Economist Magazine, Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight, and RealClearPolitics, predict that Trump is likely to win the US presidential election. Economist, Silver Bulletin, and FiveThirtyEight report 54%, 53.3% and 52.9% probability, respectively. RealClearPolitics shows a high winning probability of 61.3%. 

Notably, Trump’s winning probability has been rated at 66.1% by Polymarket bettors, pulling Kamala’s probability down to 33.9%. Polymarket even suggests that Trump could achieve a clear victory in all the six swing states: Arizona (73%), Georgia (74%), Nevada (64%), Pennsylvania (62%), Wisconsin (58%), and Michigan (53%).      

What sets the present prediction scenario apart from past elections is that, in both 2016 and 2020, most forecast platforms undervalued Trump’s odds. 

This time, the general sentiment of the US electorate appears more transparent than in the past.

Trump-Related Stocks & Tokens Rally 

The price of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp, a US-based media and technology company owned by Trump, was just $16.16 at the start of this month. Now it stands at 38.95, indicating a massive surge of 141.02% this month.  

Similarly, several Trump-themed Meme Coins have seen a growth this month. The price of MAGA, a popular Meme Coin inspired by Donald Trump, has recorded a monthly rise of nearly 29.32%.

Current Crypto Rally Trends 

Not many cryptos have witnessed growth in the last 30 days. Among the top ten cryptos, with the exception of Bitcoin, USDC, DOGE, and TRON, all the others have declined. In the Meme Coin market also, only four coins, including Dogecoin, dogwifhat, Popcat, and cat in a dogs world, have shown growth in the last 30 days. 

Interestingly, at the start of this month, the Altcoin dominance – the dominance of the total cryptocurrencies excluding the top ten – was nearly 10.27%. Now, it remains at 9.26%, indicating that the Altcoin market has recorded a 10.90% decline in dominance over the past 30 days. 

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Ethereum Market Analysis 

On October 1, Ethereum was valued at $2,601.77. It slipped to a low of $2,350 by October 3. Between October 4 and 13, the market struggled to recover from its early-month decline. By October 14, it defeated all the challenges, surpassing its opening price of the month. On October 20, the market peaked at $2,746. Since then, it has fallen nearly 10.07%. With a price hovering around the level of $2,500, the Ethereum market is currency struggling to bounce back from its recent dip. 

In conclusion, while Trump’s rising odds might seem influential, traders should remember the risks of market speculation. 

Stay tuned to Coinpedia for more updates!