Bitcoin would reach $1.8 million per coin if it matched 2017 bull market run

Share This Post

While the title of this insight may seem overly bullish, it’s simply a fact based on the data. However, historical patterns don’t really line up with such a bullish scenario. Across each Bitcoin cycle, the price increase has been around 27% of the last period. Should Bitcoin continue this trend, we may still have cause for optimism, albeit not with satoshi/dollar parity quite yet.

Bitcoin halving price increases (Source: TradingView)
Bitcoin halving price increases (Source: TradingView)

The price increase for each halving cycle appears to diminish significantly over time.

  • First Halving (to Second Halving): 10,300% increase
  • Second Halving (to Third Halving): 2,800% increase
  • Third Halving (to Fourth Halving): 738% increase

Each cycle shows a substantial reduction in the percentage increase. To forecast a trend, let’s analyze the approximate rate of decrease:

  • From Halving 1 to Halving 2: (2800 / 10300) ≈ 27.18% of the previous increase.
  • From Halving 2 to Halving 3: (738 / 2800) ≈ 26.36% of the previous increase.

If we continue this diminishing rate, Halving 4 might see an increase of around 26-27% of the previous Halving’s percentage increase:

738 * 0.265 ≈ 195.57%

Estimate for Halving 4: We could estimate an increase of approximately 195% over the halving price. This follows the trend of diminishing returns per cycle.

Such a price increase would take Bitcoin to a peak of around $180,000 this cycle.

Bitcoin halving 2024 price increase (Source: TradingView)
Bitcoin halving 2024 price increase (Source: TradingView)

For fun, if Bitcoin were to break the diminishing returns pattern and increase by 50% or 100% of the last cycle’s increase, we would see prices of $304,000 and $520,000, respectively.

Should Bitcoin somehow find the vigor of the 2017 bull run, it would rise as high as $1.8 million per coin.

Remember, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Bitcoin is still in its infancy as an asset, and anything could happen next.

Except, in my view, going to zero.

The post Bitcoin would reach $1.8 million per coin if it matched 2017 bull market run appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Read Entire Article
spot_img
- Advertisement -spot_img

Related Posts

Trump’s Dollar Boom Spells Doom for Zambia’s Recovery

Zambia’s central bank governor, Denny Kalyalya, is sounding the alarm about the strengthening US dollar’s impact on Zambia’s economy A stronger dollar, fueled by Donald

Coincheck Makes History As 1st Japanese Crypto Exchange To Debut On Nasdaq

Coincheck, a company headquartered in Tokyo, is expected to become the first cryptocurrency exchange in Japan to list its shares on a US stock exchange Related Reading: Dogecoin Explodes 113% After

Societe Generale expands its stablecoin to Ripple’s XRP Ledger to drive further adoption

Societe Generale‘s crypto subsidiary, SG-FORGE, has announced plans to extend its EUR CoinVertible (EURCV) stablecoin to the Ripple-backed XRP Ledger (XRPL), according to a Nov 14 statement

Analysts Eye $50 For Avalanche As AVAX Jumps 28% – Details

Avalanche (AVAX) has been on a phenomenal upward trend as overall market optimism has buoyed it Recently, the token surpassed crucial resistance levels fueled by recent Federal Reserve rate cuts and

SEC Chair Gensler Sticks to Crypto Rules Despite Trump’s Threat to Fire Him

The post SEC Chair Gensler Sticks to Crypto Rules Despite Trump’s Threat to Fire Him appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News Gary Gensler, the chair of the US Securities and Exchange

From Code to Riches: Satoshi Nakamoto Joins the World’s Billionaire Titans as 17th Richest

With bitcoin sitting comfortably at all-time highs, Satoshi Nakamoto, the elusive creator of the blockchain, now ranks between the 17th and 18th wealthiest entities worldwide, according to the Forbes