Polymarket bettors now predict an 85% likelihood that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the end of 2025, reflecting a 35% increase in confidence in the last few days.
The recent surge indicates growing expectations that Solana ETFs could follow the path of Bitcoin and Ethereum, further embedding cryptocurrencies into the broader financial market.
Rising confidence
Polymarket’s odds initially placed the chances of Solana ETF approval at 45%, but this figure has steadily climbed to 85% as of Jan. 2, signaling increasing investor optimism. However, the likelihood of approval before mid-2025 remains moderate, with a separate survey estimating a 57% chance by July.
The rise in market optimism comes as five major asset managers, including Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Capital, have filed applications for Solana ETFs.
Despite the influx of applications, the SEC’s classification of SOL as a security in ongoing lawsuits has added regulatory uncertainty to the approval process. This classification could complicate efforts to secure approval for Solana-based financial products.
Analysts note that Volatility Shares’ recent filing for three Solana futures ETFs in December 2024 is a positive indicator of market demand, even though Solana futures are not yet available on regulated exchanges. Industry experts interpret this development as laying the groundwork for future Solana ETFs.
Change of guard
The anticipated leadership change at the SEC in 2025 is a pivotal factor in the potential approval of Solana ETFs.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and ETF Store president Nate Geraci suggest that the appointment of a more crypto-friendly SEC chair, such as Paul Atkins, could lead to a more favorable stance on digital asset ETFs.
With the prospect of leadership shifts under a new administration, there is hope for greater regulatory clarity and flexibility regarding Solana and other altcoins.
The potential approval of Solana ETFs in 2025 could represent a major milestone for the crypto sector, reinforcing Solana’s position as a significant player in the digital asset space. However, the final outcome will depend on how the regulatory environment evolves and the influence of new SEC leadership on crypto policy.
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