Altcoin Season Paused Forever? What The Rising Bitcoin Dominance Says Will Happen

Bitcoin’s dominance over the entire market has continued to increase steadily over the past few weeks, even as many Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies started the week on a negative note. According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin’s dominance is now at 60.4%, its highest level since the 2021 bull market. 

This increasing Bitcoin dominance has intensified talks as to whether an altcoin season is imminent or indefinitely paused. According to popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, Bitcoin’s dominance might continue for now until the current trend of new meme coin launches comes to an end. 

Bitcoin Dominance Signals A Long-Term Shift

According to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, the reality is that altcoins have been steadily losing value against Bitcoin since 2021, despite occasional short-lived rallies. His perspective, based on the OTHERS/BTC chart, suggests that investors anticipating an explosive altcoin resurgence may need to wait longer.

Bitcoin’s increasing dominance over the broader cryptocurrency market has raised questions about when the Bitcoin gains will eventually roll over into the alt market like in the previous bull cycles. Cowen highlights that the OTHERS/BTC ratio, which measures the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies outside the top ten against Bitcoin, has been in a continuous downtrend for nearly three years. 

As of now, the OTHERS/BTC ratio is at a new low this week since the 2021 bull market. This downfall reinforces the idea that alts have consistently lost ground relative to Bitcoin despite temporary spikes from time to time among a few altcoins.

Interestingly, Cowen noted this trend of temporary spikes among a few altcoins as one of the reasons why Bitcoin’s dominance is on the rise. A significant portion of the altcoin market is constantly pushed by hype cycles, with new meme coins showing up to briefly outperform Bitcoin before eventually collapsing. Cowen believes that many investors misinterpret these short-lived pumps as signs of an altcoin resurgence but ignore the broader trend of capital flowing back into Bitcoin.

Will Altcoins Recover? The Key Market Indicators To Watch

The steady decline of OTHERS/BTC shows how capital is consistently flowing away from altcoins, reinforcing Bitcoin’s strength as the dominant crypto, especially among institutional investors. However, many alt advocates continue to anticipate a resurgence.

On the other hand, Cowen noted quantitative tightening (QT) as the key historical factor that determines when the altcoin season will eventually roll into action. During the previous bull market, the end of quantitative tightening marked a turning point for alts, allowing them to regain momentum against Bitcoin. However, since QT remains in effect, he argues that the conditions necessary for an altcoin comeback have not yet materialized. As such, the alt season may be paused indefinitely.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $97,900.