Traders are hopeful that Bitcoin can stage a relief rally within the $30,000 to $35,000 range, but selling at resistance could still keep BTC and altcoins in a strong bear trend.
Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded sharply after dropping near its realized price of $24,000 on May 12, suggesting some bulls went against the herd and bought the dip. According to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the exchange balances declined by more than 24,335 Bitcoin on May 11 and May 12, indicating that bulls may have started bottom fishing.
However, macro investor Raoul Pal is not confident that a bottom has been made. In an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph, Pal said that if equity markets witness a capitulation phase, crypto markets are also likely to plunge before forming a bottom. He anticipates the current bear phase to end after the United States Federal Reserve stops hiking rates.
Bear markets are known for sharp relief rallies which are used to lighten up long positions or initiate short positions. The price eventually turns down and makes a new low. Bottoms are only confirmed in hindsight. Therefore, investors may consider accumulating in phases rather than going all-in during a bear market.
Right now, investors want to know what important overhead levels that may act as resistance. Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin bounced off $26,700 on May 12 and formed a Doji candlestick pattern. This suggests that the selling pressure could be reducing. The recovery picked up steam on May 13 and bulls pushed the price above the psychological level at $30,000.
The relief rally may face resistance near $33,000 and again at the 20-day exponential moving average ($34,903). If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears will make another attempt to sink the BTC/USDT pair below $26,700 and resume the downtrend.
If they manage to do that, the selling could accelerate and the pair may drop to $25,000 and later to $21,800.
Contrary to this assumption, if bulls arrest the next decline above $28,805, it will suggest accumulation on dips. That could enhance the prospects of a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair may rally to the 50-day simple moving average ($40,210).
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) broke below the $2,159 support on May 11 and later slipped below the psychological level at $2,000 on May 12. The bulls bought the dip to $1,800 which has started a relief rally.
The buyers will now attempt to push the price above the breakdown level at $2,159. If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to the 20-day EMA ($2,554). This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it will suggest that the decline may be over.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling near overhead resistance levels. The bears will then again try to sink the pair below $1,700.
BNB/USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) fell sharply on May 12 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows that bulls aggressively defended the critical support at $211. This started a relief rally which has reached the $350 to $320 resistance zone.
If bulls drive the price above $350, it will suggest that the decline may be over. The recovery could thereafter reach $413. Such a move could indicate that the BNB/USDT pair may remain stuck inside a large range between $211 and $692.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance zone, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. The price could then gradually drift down to the crucial support at $211. The bears will have to sink the price below this level to start a new downtrend that may reach $175 and later $150.
XRP/USDT
Ripple (XRP) nosedived to $0.33 on May 12 where buying emerged. The bulls are attempting a recovery which is likely to face stiff resistance at the psychological level at $0.50.
If the price turns down from $0.50, the bears will again attempt to pull the XRP/USDT pair to $0.33. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it could result in a decline to $0.24.
Conversely, if buyers propel the price above $0.50, the pair could rally to the 20-day EMA ($0.56). A break and close above this level will suggest that the bulls are back in the game. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.70).
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) plunged to $0.40 on May 12 which pulled the RSI into the deeply oversold territory. The buyers bought this dip and are attempting to start a relief rally.
The ADA/USDT pair could rise to the breakdown level at $0.74, which is an important level to keep an eye on. If the price turns down from this resistance, it will suggest that the bears have not yet given up and they are selling on rallies. The pair could then retest the strong support at $0.40.
Contrary to this assumption, if bulls propel the price above $0.74, it will indicate that the bears may be losing their grip. The pair could then rally to the psychological level at $1 where the bears are again expected to mount a strong defense.
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) has been in a strong downtrend for the past few days. The price dipped to $37 on May 12 which pulled the RSI deep into the oversold territory. This started a relief rally on May 13.
The bulls are likely to encounter selling in the zone between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $59 and the 50% retracement level at $66. If the price turns down from this zone, the bears will attempt to resume the downtrend by pulling the pair below $37. If they can pull it off, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $32.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks above $66, the recovery could extend to the breakdown level at $75. The bulls will have to overcome this barrier to signal that the downtrend may be coming to an end.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) plummeted to $0.06 on May 12 but a minor positive is that the bulls purchased this dip. This started a relief rally which reached near the breakdown level at $0.10.
The long wick on the May 13 candlestick indicates that the bears are defending the $10 level aggressively. If the price turns down from this resistance, the bears will attempt to resume the downtrend by pulling the DOGE/USDT pair below $0.06. If they manage to do that, the next stop could be $0.04.
Alternatively, if bulls drive the price above $0.10, the pair could rise to the 20-day EMA ($0.12). This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it could suggest the start of a stronger recovery.
Related: 3 reasons why Cardano can sink further despite ADA price bouncing 58%
DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) has been in a downtrend for the past several days. The buyers stepped in to arrest the decline near the strong support at $7 on May 12 as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.
The buyers will now try to sustain the price above the breakdown level at $10.37. If they succeed, the DOT/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day EMA ($13.68). This level is likely to attract strong selling by the bears. If the subsequent decline halts at $10.37, it will indicate that the downtrend may be weakening.
Conversely, if the price turns down sharply from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will increase the possibility of a retest at $7. Below this level, the decline could extend to $5.
AVAX/USDT
Avalanche (AVAX) broke below the crucial support at $32 on May 11 and bears tried to resume the decline on May 12. However, the long tail on the day’s candlestick suggests strong buying at lower levels.
The bulls have pushed the price above the breakdown level at $32, which is the first sign of strength. If the AVAX/USDT pair sustains above $32, the bulls will attempt to push the price to the overhead resistance at $51. The bears are likely to defend this level with vigor.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $41.09, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and bears are selling on rallies. The pair could then again retest the strong support at $32 and later $23.
SHIB/USDT
Shiba Inu (SHIB) plunged below the psychological level at $0.000010 on May 12 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick suggests buying at lower levels. This resulted in a recovery on May 13.
The SHIB/USDT pair could rise to the breakdown level at $0.000017, which is likely to attract strong selling by the bears. If the price turns down from it, the bears will make another attempt to sink and sustain the pair below $0.000010.
Conversely, if bulls drive the price above $0.000017 and the 20-day EMA ($0.000018), it will suggest that markets have rejected the lower levels. The pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.000023).
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
