Robinhood has launched a dedicated prediction market hub that will allow users to trade contracts based on the outcomes of key global events.
According to a March 17 statement, the platform’s initial offerings include contracts tied to the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate for May and the men’s and women’s College Basketball Tournaments.
The firm explained:
“Each contract represents an approximate probability between 1% and 99%, with each cent effectively representing a 1% probability that the event will occur. For example, if a contract is priced at 53 cents, this can be interpreted as a 53% probability that it will occur according to that market.”
The service will be available to eligible customers across the US through KalshiEX LLC, a regulated exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Over time, Robinhood plans to introduce contracts covering various topics, including financial markets, politics, and sports.
J.B. Mackenzie, Robinhood’s VP and GM of Futures and International emphasized the company’s commitment to innovation and highlighted the importance of prediction markets in capturing insights across finance, news, and culture.
The firm further explained that building a standalone prediction markets hub allows it to better serve its customers looking to engage with events that align with their interests.
Robinhood’s prediction marketplace efforts
Prediction markets allow traders to place financial bets on future events, incentivizing accurate forecasting. While these markets faced regulatory hurdles in the US, interest has grown recently.
During the 2024 US presidential election, event-based betting platforms like Polymarkets saw increased participation and correctly predicted Donald Trump’s victory.
Robinhood briefly entered this space during that period, offering election-related contracts. The company later tested a Super Bowl betting market but withdrew it due to compliance challenges.
Robinhood asserts that its latest initiative follows all necessary regulatory guidelines this time. The company said it has engaged with the CFTC to ensure compliance, with Mackenzie stating:
“We’re excited to offer our customers a new way to participate in prediction markets and look forward to doing so in compliance with existing regulations.”
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