VanEck believes the recent surge in the Altcoin Season Index, which jumped 53% in the past 30 days to 63 points, could signal upcoming gains for Bitcoin (BTC).
According to the firm’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, this level has historically preceded positive returns for Bitcoin (BTC) across one-, three-, and six-month timeframes.
The index tracks how the 50 largest cryptocurrencies by market cap have performed against Bitcoin over the past 90 days. When 75% of these tokens, excluding stablecoins and asset-backed cryptocurrencies, outperform BTC, it is considered an “alt season.”
Sigel highlighted that Bitcoin tends to rise by an average of 10% one month after the index surpasses 60 points. Over three months, the average returns triple, while six months often see a dramatic 73% average increase.
While Bitcoin’s historical performance offers optimism for BTC investors, the trend also spells gains for altcoin holders. Sigel explained that Bitcoin often drives altcoin prices higher, creating a feedback loop that lifts BTC further until the cryptocurrency reaches the top of its cycle.
According to the index, Hedera (HBAR) was the best-performing altcoin among the top 50 in the past 90 days, with a 450% gain. Ethena’s ENA fared in second, with 342% returns, and Stellar (XLM) soared nearly 326% in the same period.
‘Dino coins’ lead the charge
The crypto market’s average performance in the past 90 days was 90% upside, while BTC price hiked 66.5% in the same period.
The “store of value” sector, comprised of coins like Litecoin (LTC) and XRP, led the charge with 212% average gains. These older-generation crypto are usually known as “dino coins.”
Meanwhile, tokens issued by centralized exchanges came in second, with an average return of 190%, followed by memecoins’ nearly 180% gains.
Native tokens of protocols developing real-world assets (RWA) projects increased by 171% in the same period, while tokens related to smart contracts infrastructures soared by 156.5%.
Wrapping the crypto sectors that fared above the market average, tokens from decentralized applications prices jumped 106%.
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